FREE SIGNAL FOREX

Bernanke repeats financial markets

2008-05-29T22:43:00.000-07:00

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated his opinion that "at this stage conditions in financial markets are still far from normal."

Liquidity is better in several market segments and the Fed's interventions have helped relieve much stress, he told a Bank for International Settlements conference in Basel, Switzerland by videoconference.The Fed chairman was largely repeating a speech he gave May 13 to an Atlanta Fed conference. Back then, he said that although improving, at this stage conditions in financial markets are still far from normal.In today’s conference, he also said that the Fed stood ready to expand its liquidity-providing facilities, the Term Auction Facility for banks in particular, if financial market difficulties demand it. Much of Bernanke's speech was devoted to explaining the extraordinary expansion of direct Fed lending to Wall Street in the wake of the credit crisis. He reiterated that the Fed’s decision to shepherd and help finance takeover of Bear Stearns by JP Morgan Chase was aimed to prevent a much broader liquidity crisis.

US ready in recession

2008-05-26T17:55:00.001-07:00

he world’s richest man, Warren Buffet said that United States is already in recession.

In an interview with German magazine Der Spiegel on Saturday, he said said the United States is already in recession and added: "Perhaps not in the sense that economists would define it" with two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

"But the people are already feeling the effects," said Buffett,"It will be deeper and last longer than many think."

Buffett, the 77-year-old chief of the Berkshire Hathaway holding company, just overtook Bill Gates this year as the world's richest man. His wealth jumped from 52 billion dollars last year to 62 billion.

Buffett also blamed financial institutions for introducing instruments 'they can no longer control. He also said he believed the financial markets should be more tightly regulated.

US economic growth has slowed dramatically in recent months and many economists say the US economy will experience a recession during 2008 amid a housing slump and related credit crunch.

BoJ Is Watching Inflationary Expectations

2008-05-22T22:57:00.001-07:00

Bank of Japan policy makers said they need to monitor consumers' rising expectations for inflation.

Some members said that consumers' inflation expectations were rising, reflecting the ongoing rise in the price of daily necessities, and this warranted attention, some members said at the April 8-9 policy meeting, according to the minutes released today in Tokyo. A few members said rising prices have damped consumer sentiment.

Since the meeting, the central bank cut its growth forecast and shelved a policy of gradually raising interest rates. Governor Masaaki Shirakawa told parliament yesterday that costlier energy and raw materials will erode corporate profits and household incomes and that may force companies and consumers to pare spending, slowing Japan's longest postwar expansion.

The central bank dropped a call for gradual rate increases in its twice-yearly outlook on April 30 and cut its estimate for this fiscal year's expansion to 1.5 percent from 2.1 percent. It said consumer prices excluding fresh food will climb 1.1 percent, raising its inflation projection from 0.4 percent.

The Bank of Japan has kept borrowing costs unchanged since February 2007, when it doubled the overnight lending rate to 0.5 percent. The rate remains the lowest in the industrialized world.

The International Monetary Fund said this week that the central bank's policy represents a wait-and-see attitude. That's the appropriate stance to safeguard growth.

The greenback bertahan dari tekanan major

2008-05-22T22:55:00.001-07:00

Penguatan dolar ini selain disinyalir adanya aksi profit taking oleh para investor, juga didukung oleh terkoreksinya harga minyak dunia

Ulasan Fundamental

Perdagangan currency sampai penutupan pasar AS, dolar berhasil bertahan dari tekanan major currency, kecuali oleh pound. Faktor pendorong penguatan dolar ini selain disinyalir adanya aksi profit taking oleh para investor, juga didukung oleh terkoreksinya harga minyak dunia menembus kembali level $ 130 per barel. Sedangkan poundsterling kembali menunjukan dominasinya sampai penutupan karena penurunan data ekonomi retail sales U.K tidak seperti yang dikhawatirrkan sebelumnya hanya sebesar 0.2 persen dari perkiraan sebelumnya 0.5 persen. Spekulasi kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga BOE turut pula mendukung the cable berjaya.

Untuk perdagangan currency hari ini fokus pasar akan menantikan serangkaian data ekonomi baik dari kawasan Eropa ataupun dari Amerika sendiri. Pergerakan dolar diperkirakan akan melemah diakhir pekan ini, masalah stagflasi ekonomi Amerika, ketidakjelasan interest rate outlook the fed, serta meroketnya harga minyak dunia akan menjadi faktor yang bisa memberatkan the greenback. Sedangkan disisi lainya baik pihak ECB ataupun BOE justru berpotensi akan mempertahankan kebijakan suku bunga tingginya dalam usaha meredam gejolak inflasi yang terjadi di kedua kawasan tersebut.

Forex (valid 23 Mei / 13.00-19.00 WIB)

2008-05-22T22:46:00.000-07:00

Euro (EUR/USD) (sesi siang)/(mid session)
Euro (EUR/USD) (sesi siang)/(mid session)		RESISTANCE	SUPPORT	DAILY TREND
BUY	1.5730	1=1.5736	1=1.5716	up
BREAK	1.5768	2=1.5744	2=1.5704
		3=1.5756	3=1.5696
SELL	1.5707
BREAK	1.5629

STOP	40 pips
TARGET	80 pips

Poundsterling (GBP/USD) (sesi siang)/(mid session)
Poundsterling (GBP/USD) (sesi siang)/(mid session)		RESISTANCE	SUPPORT	DAILY TREND
BUY	1.9801	1=1.9809	1=1.9781	up
BREAK	1.9846	2=1.9822	2=1.9766
		3=1.9837	3=1.9753
SELL	1.9763
BREAK	1.9730

STOP	40 pips
TARGET	80 pips

Yen (USD/JPY) (sesi siang)/(mid session)
Yen (USD/JPY) (sesi siang)/(mid session)		RESISTANCE	SUPPORT	DAILY TREND
BUY	104.12	1=104.19	1=103.90	down
BREAK	104.36	2=104.35	2=103.77
		3=104.48	3=103.61
SELL	104.01
BREAK	103.73

STOP	40 pips
TARGET	80 pips

Swiss franc (USD/CHF) (sesi siang)/(mid session)
Swiss franc (USD/CHF) (sesi siang)/(mid session)		RESISTANCE	SUPPORT	DAILY TREND
BUY	1.0335	1=1.0315	1=1.0296	down
BREAK	1.0387	2=1.0326	2=1.0288
		3=1.0334	3=1.0277
SELL	1.0301
BREAK	1.0268

STOP	40 pips
TARGET	80 pips

Australia dollar (AUD/USD) (sesi siang)/(mid session)
		RESISTANCE	SUPPORT	DAILY TREND
BUY	0.9569	1=0.9592	1=0.9546	up
BREAK	0.9610	2=0.9612	2=0.9520
		3=0.9638	3=0.9500
SELL	0.9556
BREAK	0.9541

STOP	40 pips
TARGET	80 pips

US Stagflation become a nightmare

2008-05-22T02:23:00.000-07:00

Wall street going dip again, and Asia bourse expected open lower following the US market last night.

The projection that unemployment rate rise up these year thus US consume will decrease and economic growth become slower. The Fed signaled that they open mind to cut interest again.

Consumer good, industry, and transportation are strike by these projection and make investors put them sell especially when the oil price creeping to $ 134 per barrel.

Consumers will reduce their spend while energyu price are high, it would make company gain are lower where divide to stock holder are lowest.

Financial sector has damped bay US financial institution where their gain average are turn lower average 19% in near term. Profit taking are predicted happen to these sector today in Asia market. Real sector facing default by financial sector after US micro conditions are not favorable. Technology sector probably crushed by US negative sentiment where energy price are so high.

Yen appreciated to Dollar US and could push export shares are lower today. For Hangseng, these afternoon are data released for Hong Kong economy growth, market estimated are consolidated, and effected to the market probably tomorrow.

Dollar Dips as Rate Outlook Lifts Euro

2008-05-20T22:43:00.000-07:00

The dollar fell as U.S. inflation data added to concerns about the economy's strength and raised doubt about whether The Fed will be able to hike interest rate

Surging German producer prices, on the other hand, lifted the euro, which hit a three-week high at $1.5674 after the head of a German think tank said he expected euro zone interest rates to soon rise.

The inflationary pressures in Europe are relentless, and that's driving the euro higher. A weaker-than-expected 0.2 percent rise in U.S. producer prices last month adds to the concern sparked by a recent survey showing U.S. consumer sentiment at its lowest level since 1980.

Last week people thought Fed easing was over and the economy had stabilized, but the numbers lately are causing doubt, was last trading up on the day against the dollar, while the dollar

Against a basket of six major currencies, the dollar was down 0.8 percent at 72.381, a one-month low.

Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn on Tuesday that interest rates appear to be at the right level to boost sputtering U.S. growth

However, the situation may be complicated by data showing that so-called core producer prices, which remove food and energy, rose by a larger-than-expected 0.4 percent. That complicates life for the Fed, which has reduced interest rates by 3.25 percentage points to 2 percent since September but has since signaled a pause. The euro initially weakened when the closely-watched ZEW survey of German investor sentiment fell in May for the second straight month.

It recouped those losses, said he thought the European Central Bank would soon raise interest rates. The ECB has kept benchmark rates at 4 percent for nearly a year as record oil prices keep pressure on inflation.

The euro was also supported by a rise in German producer price inflation to a 20-month high, which boosted the case for higher rates. German business sentiment push the euro back toward all-time highs above $1.60.

However, signs of slower euro-zone growth have complicated the rate outlook, leaving markets uncertain about the bank's next move, but the robust first-quarter growth seen in the euro zone's largest economy would not continue added to the confusion.

Trading signal 20-5-2008

2008-05-20T00:28:00.002-07:00

Euro (EUR/USD) (sesi siang)/(mid session)
Euro (EUR/USD) (sesi siang)/(mid session)		RESISTANCE	SUPPORT	DAILY TREND
BUY	1.5531	1=1.5537	1=1.5497	down
BREAK	1.5561	2=1.5559	2=1.5479
		3=1.5577	3=1.5457
SELL	1.5506
BREAK	1.5448

STOP	50 pips
TARGET	100 pips

Poundsterling (GBP/USD) (sesi siang)/(mid session)
Poundsterling (GBP/USD) (sesi siang)/(mid session)		RESISTANCE	SUPPORT	DAILY TREND
BUY	1.9517	1=1.9534	1=1.9478	up
BREAK	1.9550	2=1.9562	2=1.9450
		3=1.9590	3=1.9422
SELL	1.9496
BREAK	1.9439

STOP	50 pips
TARGET	100 pips

Bank of Japan Keeps Key Rate

2008-05-20T00:28:00.001-07:00

The Bank of Japan left its interest rate target unchanged at 0.5 percent on Tuesday, as widely expected, in a unanimous vote.

The BOJ has kept monetary policy unchanged since raising the overnight call rate target from 0.25 percent in February last year.

The central bank will release its monthly economic report at 3 p.m. (0600 GMT) and Governor Masaaki Shirakawa will hold a news conference from 3:30 p.m. (0630 GMT).

Expansion of the world's second-largest economy will probably lose steam after unexpectedly quickening in the first quarter. In a news briefing later today, Shirakawa will probably reiterate that growth may falter because of a global slowdown, financial-market turmoil and rising commodities costs.

Growth in gross domestic product accelerated to 3.3 percent in the three months ended March 31, the Cabinet Office said last week. The number didn't change economists' views that the economy's longest postwar expansion will cool this year.

U.K. homeowners Raise unrealistic

2008-05-19T11:42:00.000-07:00

U.K. homeowners raised the prices of their properties this month because they are not realistic enough about the housing market.

The average asking price rose 1.2 percent from April to 242,500 pounds. Prices in London increased 0.2 percent. On the year, the cost of a U.K. home rose 2.2 percent.

Not enough sellers are coming onto the market with realistic prices and it's the wrong tactic for the current set of market conditions. There are far fewer mortgages around; buyers are in more limited supply. It's a tough market that's likely to continue for some time.

Home values dropped in April from a year earlier for the first time since 1996, indicators based on agreed selling prices show, and Bank of England Governor Mervyn King says they likely to fall further. Banks raised the cost of their most popular mortgages to an eight-year high last month, curbing lending and making property purchases harder to finance.

Homeowners raised prices the most in the South East of England, where the cost of a property rose 4.2 percent on the month. The East Midlands and East Anglia had the biggest declines, both with a 1.5 percent price drop on the month.

In London, asking prices in the southern area of Kingston led increases, rising 3.9 percent from April, followed by the central district of Westminster, with an increase of 3.2 percent, Rightmove said. The biggest drop was in Hounslow, near London's Heathrow airport, where home costs fell 4 percent.

House prices will fall about 5 percent this year, and the number of transactions may drop 40 percent if the seizure in credit markets doesn't abate.

Banks approved 64,000 home loans in March, the lowest amount since at least 1999. The average rate offered by lenders on a mortgage for 95 percent of the price of a property, fixed for 24 months, rose to 6.94 percent in April, the highest since February 2000.

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2008-05-19T10:32:00.000-07:00

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Trading signal 20-05-2008

2008-05-19T10:31:00.000-07:00

EUR/USD
EUR/USD		SUPPORT	RESISTANCE	CHART
BUY	BUY 1.5550	1.5486	1.5814	Daily – up
	Buy Break 1.5705

SELL	Sell 1.5640	1.5379	1.5707
	Sell Break 1.5485

STOP	30 Pips	1.5322	1.5650

TARGET	50 PIPS

GBP/USD
GBP/USD		SUPPORT	RESISTANCE	CHART
BUY	BUY 1.9530	1.9462	1.9776	Daily – up
	Buy Break 1.9635

SELL	Sell 1.9595	1.9372	1.9686
	Sell Break 1.9480

STOP	30 Pips	1.9305	1.9619

TARGET	50 PIPS

USD/JPY
USD/JPY		SUPPORT	RESISTANCE	CHART
BUY	BUY 103.40	103.36	106.48	Daily - down
	Buy Break 104.70

SELL	Sell 104.40	102.66	105.78
	Sell Break 102.75

STOP	30 Pips	101.80	104.92

TARGET	50 PIPS

USD/CHF
USD/CHF		SUPPORT	RESISTANCE	CHART
BUY	BUY 1.0420	1.0500	1.0720	Daily – down
	Buy Break 1.0555

SELL	Sell 1.0505	1.0437	1.0657
	Sell Break 1.0380

STOP	30 Pips	1.0390	1.0610

TARGET	50 PIPS

USD/AUD
USD/AUD		SUPPORT	RESISTANCE	CHART
BUY	BUY 0.9455	0.9435	0.9767	Daily– up
	Buy Break 0.9600

SELL	Sell 0.9550	0.9328	0.9660
	Sell Break 0.9400

STOP	30 Pips	0.9269	0.9601

TARGET	50 P

$ 100 billion stimulus packaged

2008-05-19T10:30:00.000-07:00

The fiscal stimulus will provide support to the economy as we weather the housing correction, capital markets turmoil and higher energy and food prices

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Friday that financial markets are "considerably calmer" now than they were two months ago. He predicted the economy will be rebounding by the second half of this year.

In a speech to business executives in Washington, Paulson said the drag from housing, which he characterized as still the biggest risk to the economy, will soon be lessened by nearly $100 billion in economic stimulus payments to U.S. households.

"The fiscal stimulus will provide support to the economy as we weather the housing correction, capital markets turmoil and higher energy and food prices," Paulson said in his prepared remarks.

The economy has been pushed to the brink of a recession by a prolonged housing slump, a credit crisis, soaring energy prices and more than a quarter-million job layoffs over the past four months. In March, the credit crisis claimed its biggest victim with the near-collapse of Bear Stearns, the country's fifth largest investment bank.

Paulson said "some bumps in the road ahead" are to be expected, but that he believes significant progress in dealing with the credit crisis has been made.

In his remarks, Paulson never used the word recession, but he did forecast that the stimulus checks going to 130 million households would help spur growth in the second half of the year. He said that those checks along with business tax breaks in the $168 billion stimulus package would add 500,000 jobs by the end of the year over what would have been created without the stimulus boost.

"Although we are still working through housing and capital markets issues, and expect to be doing so for some time, we also expect to see a faster pace of economic growth before the end of the year," he said.

Paulson said that both the ability to obtain loans and investor confidence are gradually improving, raising hopes that the financial market crisis which hit last August was beginning to recede.

European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaus Liebscher signaled the bank may leave interest rates at 4% this year.

2008-05-19T10:29:00.000-07:00

Saudi Arabia does not have customers that are making requests for oil that they are not able to satisfy.

Saudi Arabian leaders made clear Friday they see no reason to increase oil production until their customers demand it, apparently rebuffing President Bush amid soaring U.S. gasoline prices.

During Bush's second personal appeal this year to King Abdullah, Saudi officials stuck to their position that they are already meeting demand, the president's national security adviser told reporters.

"What they're saying to us is ... Saudi Arabia does not have customers that are making requests for oil that they are not able to satisfy," Stephen Hadley said on a day when oil prices topped $127 a barrel, a record high.

The Saudi government indicated that it is willing to put on the market whatever oil is necessary to meet the demand of its customers, Hadley said. But even then, he said, Saudi leaders say increased production would not dramatically reduce pump prices in the United States.

The Saudis are investing in ways to increase oil production over time. Officials told Bush they are doing "everything they can do" for now to address a complicated market. Hadley said the Bush administration will take the explanation back to its own experts and "see it if conforms."

When Bush and Abdullah met in the kingdom in mid-January, the president also sought more Saudi output but got a chilly response to that plea. Saudi Arabia said it would increase production only when the market justified it and that production levels appeared normal.

Bush acknowledges that raising output is difficult because the demand for oil -- particularly from China and India -- is stretching supplies. Also, economists say prices are being driven up by increased demand, not slowed production.

Beyond oil, Iran also dominated the meeting between the president and the king. The White House says the president's visit is intended, in part, to celebrate 75 years of formal U.S.-Saudi relations. But the rising price of oil commanded attention.

Bush's visit comes two days after Congress voted to temporarily halt daily shipments of 70,000 barrels of oil to the nation's emergency reserve. Bush has refused to stop pouring oil into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, saying the stockpile was meant for emergencies and that halting the shipments would have little or no impact on gasoline or crude oil prices.

It's a move that Democrats have sought for the past year to increase supply and apply downward pressure on prices. With an eye to the November election, the Senate sent the measure to the president Wednesday night without a single GOP objection. The White House has indicated that Bush will sign the reserve measure.

Also, as Bush prepared to leave Washington, Senate Democr ats introduced a resolution that would block $1.4 billion in arms sales to Saudi Arabia unless Riyadh agrees to increase its oil production by 1 million barrels per day.

ECB has no cut rate

2008-05-19T10:27:00.000-07:00

European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaus Liebscher signaled the bank may leave interest rates at 4% this year.

In an interview in Vienna, he stated that he saw no room for the ECB to reduce interest rates in 2008. He said that the current monetary policy stance is very suitable to maintain price stability and to avoid inflation expectations building up.

The ECB has refrained from following the U.S. Federal Reserve in cutting borrowing costs as soaring food and energy prices drive inflation above 3 percent.

The bank is concerned faster inflation will feed into wage demands and prompt companies to pass on higher costs, leading to so-called second-round effects.

Liebscher said that inflation at 3% was "unacceptable" and that the ECB will do what was needed to prevent second-round inflation effects.

Regarding growth, he stated that growth will be ongoing and that "there's no reason for any kind of growth pessimism. He also stated that there was no need for the ECB to lower its growth forecasts.

Asked if the ECB could raise interest rates, Liebscher said the bank is not ``pre-committed'' and any possible increase would depend on ``new, incoming'' data.

Bernanke reminds banks to raise capital

2008-05-19T10:26:00.001-07:00

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke pushed banks to keep raising capital in the aftermath of losses from the credit crisis to avert deeper damage to the U.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke pushed banks to keep raising capital in the aftermath of losses from the credit crisis to avert deeper damage to the U.S. economy.

Firms are hunkering down, they have at least partially replaced the losses with new capital raising, but not entirely. They are being rather conservative in making new loans, which has implications for the broader economy.

Bernanke's remarks reflect concerns he and other Fed officials expressed this week that financial markets have yet to return to normal. The Fed chief also said the central bank is considering strengthening its guidance to banks on how they manage risk after weaknesses that contributed to the crisis.

While banks and securities companies have raised about $244 billion of capital since July, they may have further to go after writedowns and credit losses in excess of $333 billion. Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson have repeatedly said firms should keep increasing their funds, seeking to alleviate the impact of the credit crunch.

Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. are among companies raising capital this quarter. IndyMac Bancorp Inc., the second- biggest independent U.S. home lender, said this week it may raise a slug of money from outside investors.

I strongly urge financial institutions to remain proactive in their capital-raising efforts, Bernanke said in the text of his speech. Doing so not only helps the broader economy but positions firms to take advantage of new profit opportunities as conditions in the financial markets and the economy improve.

The Fed said in a weekly report today that its direct lending to banks rose to a record $14.4 billion in the week to May 14. Policy makers have increased the attractiveness of the resource by lowering the rate on the funds and extending the term.

Bernanke said that senior bank executives need to take a leadership role in strengthening risk management. The strongest banks didn't rely on credit-rating companies and took into account the danger of a slump in access to funds, he said.